Patricia Marins engagement report

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• Aug 22, 20266.3x their median

  https://t.co/WsBSH8KUvn

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• Aug 12, 20264.4x their median

  Never has a president subjected the US to such global humiliation On February 28, Trump and Netanyahu ordered an attack on Iran which, in their assessment, would be swift and triumphant. What we witnessed was the exact opposite: a war against a resilient adversary that ended up exhausting several stockpiles of American weapons in just 40 days of combat. The lack of long-term planning was evident from day one. Days ago, the WSJ reported that Iran carried out more than 2,000 attacks using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and high-precision aerial drones against targets in the Gulf. The offensive managed to strike and severely damage at least 20 American military installations spread across 8 countries in the region, causing damages of at least 13 billion dollars. Military bases became uninhabitable in the face of the Iranian onslaught, while the world felt the impact of Trump and Netanyahu’s war. A truce was then negotiated and put into effect, but Iran never accepted the terms for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and this situation persists to this day. I wrote some time ago that the cost of the war, added to aerial operations, defensive and offensive ammunition, damage to bases, and aircraft losses, already exceeded 120 billion dollars. If we add the material damages and economic losses of the Gulf countries, we will have a total figure in the range of 300 billion, not counting other global losses. A defeat that Trump cannot change, even if he repeats the word victory every night on his social network. It was a war where all allies refused to get involved, an isolation felt even by remote countries that typically showed automatic alignment. Internally, there was a change of command and clear signs of excessive politicization. But such an embarrassment did not stop there. It has now come to light that President Donald Trump carried out a top-secret plane-swapping operation, using a food truck as a disguise due to a threat of an attack from Iran. The highly unusual maneuver took place in Ankara, Turkey, right after the NATO summit, but the details of the farce were revealed by the American press and confirmed by Trump himself. Imagine the president of the United States of America hiding in a little food truck… What a situation these people got themselves into! Read More: https://t.co/PeVPdicTmN

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• Sep 10, 20264.0x their median

  Why is the success of the Houthi offensive so important for the world today? Because it is the consolidation of the Iranian influence over the two critical chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which a large share of global energy trade and a major slice of Asia to Europe goods traffic pass. In geopolitical terms, Iran is trying to expand its power even under heavy economic pressure. The logic appears to be that attack is the best defense.

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• Aug 7, 20263.8x their median

  The Saudis sign a trilateral security agreement with Pakistan and Turkey. There is no other image that more clearly symbolizes Trump’s failure than the Gulf states seeking regional security arrangements. https://t.co/duAUiuYBte

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• Mar 31, 20263.1x their median

  Nothing Will Be the Same for a Long Time The world we knew has changed and will remain different for years to come. We were still recovering from the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine when the new war, started by the United States and Israel, struck hard at the infrastructure of Iran, the Persian Gulf countries, Israel itself, and Oman. These bombings were not just military actions, they delivered a deep blow to the global economy. Oil, natural gas, fertilizers, semiconductors, chemicals, metals, and even helium saw their supply drastically reduced. Recovery will be slow and painful. The Price of Destruction The damage to the region’s metallurgical infrastructure was massive and concentrated on strategically vital points. In Iran, the Mobarakeh Steel Company complex suffered the collapse of blast furnace structures and critical cooling systems in its direct reduction units and electric arc furnaces. Reconstruction costs are estimated at US$ 6 billion, with a recovery timeline of 2 to 3 years. In Bahrain, the impact focused on Aluminium Bahrain, where the attack severely damaged reduction lines and logistics, causing structural losses of US$ 2.5 billion. In the United Arab Emirates, strikes against Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) facilities in Abu Dhabi and Dubai resulted in estimated structural damage of US$ 4.2 billion. This coordinated destruction in the three countries created a major gap in the global supply of primary metals, sharply raising operational costs and commodity prices worldwide. In the oil and gas sector, the destruction was even more brutal. The Kharg Island Terminal, Iran’s main crude oil export point, lost docking berths, pipelines, and giant storage tanks. Estimated cost: US$ 12 billion. The Asaluyeh and South Pars complex, the heart of gas and condensate processing, had fractionation towers, heat exchangers, and control systems incinerated, another US$ 10 billion in losses. The Abadan and Isfahan refineries, essential for gasoline and diesel production, were also badly damaged. When pipelines, gas lines, and pumping stations are added, the total cost for Iran’s energy sector alone reaches US$ 30.5 billion. The biggest problem is not just the money. It’s logistics. Iran needs to import turbines, special valves, and compressors that have long global production queues. Without easy access to Western suppliers, returning to pre-war levels could take 3 to 4 years. Israel also paid a heavy price. Its technology and chemical centers were hit. Semiconductor plants, such as Intel’s facility in Kiryat Gat, lost clean rooms and precision equipment. Chemical complexes in Haifa and desalination plants suffered significant damage. The total estimated cost is US$ 10 billion, with recovery times ranging from 6 months to 3 years. In Iraq, the already fragile electricity and port infrastructure lost high-voltage substations, cranes at Umm Qasr port, and grain silos. Approximate cost: US$ 5 billion. Recovery is expected to take 1 to 2 years. In the United Arab Emirates, attacks hit the Fujairah Industrial Zone, fuel tanks, the port that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, and key gas fields and refineries such as Ruwais, Habshan, and Shah. Physical infrastructure costs exceed US$ 10 billion, with timelines from 6 months to 2 years. Kuwait and Bahrain faced direct impacts on ships and refineries. Kuwait lost a large tanker and saw its facilities operating at minimum capacity. Estimated losses: US$ 3 billion. Bahrain had its Sitra refinery damaged and pipelines affected, with repair costs around US$ 800 million and a timeline of 9 to 14 months. Oman was also hit, although on a smaller scale than its neighbors. Drone and missile strikes targeted key ports, damaging oil storage tanks and silos at Salalah, Duqm, and Sohar. Salalah, a major container and fuel hub outside the Strait of Hormuz, suffered fires in storage tanks and limited damage to cranes. Read More in my Substack: https://t.co/by67pD58TP

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• Aug 18, 20263.1x their median

  Sometimes people think I exaggerate in my criticisms of the Trump administration. But… just a few weeks ago his son-in-law Jared Kushner was going around the GCC with his hand out. Now Trump is appointing him as the envoy and negotiator with Hamas. This is a complete slap in the face to career American diplomacy, and an incomprehensible joke. One thing is making money as a family. Another is inserting the family into extremely complex, decades-old problems that demand real seriousness.

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• Aug 5, 20263.0x their median

  War: India Sent More Than 3,000 Weapon Shipments to Israel A report by Amnesty International, confirmed by the Indian government, shows that Israel received 2,596 confirmed shipments of weapons between October 2023 and November 2025. These transfers did not stop there. As the organization has confirmed that exports and joint supply chains remain active in 2026, even after repeated international warnings, I dare to state that the total number of shipments, including those conducted in secrecy and those from 2026, exceeds 3,000. This places India’s military industry as an active participant in the devastation of Gaza, alongside those of the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and other European countries. In June and July 2026, Amnesty International sent official notifications to the Indian state and to nine companies involved, demanding explanations. No response was received from the authorities by the time the document was published. Meanwhile, the partnership between India and Israel continues to consolidate. In June 2026, senior officials from Israel’s Ministry of Defense made official visits to India to align regional security interests and strengthen industrial ties. Indian companies operate in partnership with Israeli defense giants such as Elbit Systems, producing armaments under the Made in India policy. Cheap Indian labor is precisely what these corporations seek. But the exports were not carried out solely by Israeli companies operating in India; they directly involved the Indian government and public-sector companies. There were direct shipments of weapons manufactured by enterprises owned by the Indian state itself and controlled by the Ministry of Defense, such as MIL and Yantra.  Even when production is carried out by an Israeli company operating inside the country, these weapons cannot leave India without explicit approval from the government in New Delhi. India’s Ministry of Commerce and its customs authorities had to issue specific military export licenses for each of the shipments sent throughout the conflict. The Indian government has stated that the country maintains a robust export-control mechanism and that all military transactions comply with international obligations and laws. However, there is no dispute over legality here, the core issue is the morality of the act itself. New Delhi is deepening ties with the Israeli defense industry, which already accounts for 15% of the country’s arms imports.  Read more: https://t.co/R8P7eOIcvh

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• Aug 27, 20262.8x their median

  “CIA Director Ratcliffe traveled unannounced to Moscow to warn Russian officials against attacking NATO members and providing military aid to Iran, US media reports.” You don’t make a surprise, desperate trip to a country you’re imposing sanctions on unless it’s to ask for something. It only takes two brain cells to see that this kind of visit is to ask for something, not to make threats. And curiously, after the CIA director’s visit, Russia has announced that President Pezeshkian and Putin are set to meet next week in Kyrgyzstan, on the sidelines of the SCO summit. There are no coincidences in this field. Just as there is no chance that the Iranian president will carry a message from the Russians capable of changing anything. The truth is that the Russians did very little for Iran in the war. Incredibly, Iran fought almost entirely with a national industry and rare allies, which today makes it hard to apply pressure for an end to the state of war. https://t.co/P6RN2eyQzB

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• Jul 25, 20262.6x their median

  Houthis launch missile salvo against Saudi oil facilities Saudi Arabia struck a Yemeni port area yesterday. The outcome was entirely predictable: Houthi forces responded not with a single missile, but with a salvo of at least five ballistic missiles against the Aramco complex in Jazan, on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, followed by another wave of missiles and drones targeting the Khamis Mushait military base. In a statement, Yemeni forces called on workers at Saudi ports to evacuate immediately. The declared targets include the ports of Jeddah, King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, King Abdullah Port, King Fahd Industrial Port, Yanbu Commercial Port, as well as Aramco facilities and refineries. In response, the Saudis launched strikes on the Yemeni capital, confirming that the escalation is now underway. The Saudis and Yemenis had maintained a fragile truce that somehow held throughout the entire period of the US-Israel-Iran war. To prolong the truce, Riyadh even maintained a financing arrangement with the Houthis that included cooperation against piracy off the Horn of Africa. This escalation against Yemen places Saudi Arabia in a vulnerable position with much to lose, whereas the Houthis have very little at stake, having grown resilient through years of continuous rebuilding. The Houthi ballistic arsenal spans from tactical rockets to long-range strike weapons. At its core is the Burkan series, a lineage derived from the Iranian Qiam-1 and classic Scud with a range of 800 to 1,200 km. For strategic reaches, the group deploys the Toufan, a Shahab-3 derivative approaching a 2,000-km radius, and the newly unveiled Palestine-2, a solid-fuel, two-stage missile built to strike targets beyond the 2,000-km mark. Complementing this, they have the heavy Zelzal-3 artillery rockets, which are increasingly upgraded with precision guidance kits. In cruise missiles, they operate the Quds series, compact turbojet-powered systems based on the Iranian Soumar/Paveh design, with ranges approaching 2,000 km and modern navigation. We are talking about an arsenal of roughly 1,000-1,500 missiles assembled in Yemeni facilities with Iranian components. Full article: https://t.co/sKvvqriUK5

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• Sep 14, 20262.6x their median

  Saudi Arabia - Defeat Before It Begins The conflict between the Saudis and the Houthis is a defeat for the Saudis regardless of the military outcome. The number of missiles in Yemeni hands and the vast oil facilities that are vital to the kingdom’s economy already make it clear who will lose this conflict. For the Houthis, there is little left to lose that has not already been lost and rebuilt before. Not long ago, an Israeli strike blew up the presidential palace and killed almost the entire Houthi government. What was the impact on the group? Zero. Everything is quickly reassembled and rebuilt in an improvised way, as many times as necessary. Will the Houthis unleash heavy fire against all of Saudi infrastructure? No. They will not do so for now. This is pressure coordinated with Iran, in which the Saudis are merely, and sadly, the target standing in the way, not the main cause. Read https://t.co/P6RN2eyQzB

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