Jukan engagement report

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• Oct 1, 20263.7x their median

  The most valuable comment from the Micron call is probably that they expect supply in 2028 to be even tighter than in 2026. Some Anal-ysts are claiming there will be oversupply in 2028. That's absurd. What this comment tells us is that a substantial portion of 2028 volume is already contracted. Enough LTAs have been signed that 2028 is now within visibility. Why are memory stocks trading at such low P/E multiples right now? Obviously, because everyone believes this boom will be short lived. Still, let's think about it one more time. We don't know about 2029 or 2030, but can't we at least treat demand through 2028 as certain? If demand is locked in through 2028, I think the P/E multiple should at the very least be higher than it is now.

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• Sep 8, 20263.4x their median

  "Three out of four are defective"... China's CXMT struggles with HBM yields, with immature TSV technology to blame ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China's largest DRAM maker, has begun trial production of fourth generation high bandwidth memory (HBM3), but initial yields are barely improving. Yields are reported to have stalled at 25%, roughly one third of the so called "golden yield" of 80% that the semiconductor industry treats as the threshold for volume production. The gap is stark compared with SK hynix, which has been mass producing the same product since 2022 and has secured yields above 90%. Industry sources point to the gap in maturity of through-silicon via (TSV) technology, the core process for stacking and connecting multiple DRAM layers, as the root cause. ◇ "DRAM has caught up, but HBM stacking is a different problem" According to a senior official at a semiconductor equipment company familiar with CXMT's situation on the 9th, the yield of CXMT's HBM3 8-High product is stuck at around 30% in the front end process. Of the products that survive that stage, only about 70% are recognized as final good units after passing through the back end process. In simple terms, if 100 HBM3 units are started, close to 80 of them fail the final test. CXMT is reported to be supplying the small volumes of HBM samples it produces this way to Chinese companies such as Alibaba's T-Head and Cambricon while continuing its yield improvement work. The problem is that the issue does not lie in the fine process technology of the DRAM itself. A semiconductor equipment industry official explained, "There is no major problem with the standard DRAM that CXMT makes on its 'G4' (17nm class) process used for HBM. However, the DRAM dies used for HBM are larger in area than standard products and have more demanding electrical specifications, so even on the same process they are much harder to pass the acceptance criteria." In other words, CXMT's fundamental capability in making standard DRAM has risen to a considerable level, but a bottleneck is emerging at the stage of converting it into the high performance product that is HBM. At the heart of that bottleneck, according to industry sources, is the TSV process. ◇ The real hurdle is TSV... "Impossible to catch up without years of accumulated know how" TSV stands for "Through Silicon Via" and refers to the microscopic copper wiring that passes vertically through each layer to carry electrical signals when DRAM is stacked in multiple layers, as in HBM. It is a highly demanding process in which a DRAM wafer is thinned down to several tens of micrometers, a fraction of the thickness of a human hair, after which thousands of tiny holes are drilled through that thin silicon plate and filled completely with copper. A single hole that is misaligned or not properly filled can cause the entire layer to be rejected, making it one of the semiconductor processes with the most stringent precision requirements. The consensus in the industry is that this is the process where the technology gap between CXMT and the leading companies is widest. According to analysis by semiconductor research firm Nomad Semi, Samsung Electronics' HBM2 (second generation HBM) has more than 5,000 TSVs per die and SK hynix's HBM3 has more than 8,000, while CXMT's is understood to have only around 3,000. A smaller number of TSVs means sacrificing bandwidth (data processing speed) in exchange for lower process difficulty, yet even so CXMT's yields still fall far short of Samsung and SK hynix. TSV is a process that is challenging even for the industry leader: SK hynix itself publicly disclosed in 2024 that the yield of the standalone TSV process was only 40 to 60% at the time. On top of this, yield losses also occur in the back end (stacking and bonding) stage where the dies are actually stacked and joined. If even one of the eight dies is misaligned, if a microscopic void forms at a bonding interface, or if a layer warps during the thermocompression bonding process (warpage), the entire stack is scrapped. Because the number of possible failure points grows with each additional layer, the difficulty rises exponentially. Given that CXMT is already showing such poor yields at 8-High, some expect it to face even greater difficulties when moving to higher stacks such as 12-High. A semiconductor industry official explained, "The TSV process is an area that only stabilizes after years of accumulated wafer handling know how. Chinese companies have rapidly closed the gap in the fine process technology of DRAM itself, but back end know how such as TSV and bonding is difficult to catch up on in a short period." He added, "That said, Samsung Electronics also had initial HBM4 (sixth generation HBM) production yields below 60% in February this year and raised them to 80% within six months, so it is too early to declare CXMT's 25% yield a 'failure.'"

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• Oct 3, 20263.3x their median

  Getting ready for GTA 6… https://t.co/dUz9rM2x7l

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• Oct 1, 20262.9x their median

  FT: Oracle signs $7 billion deal to lease computing capacity to Tencent. https://t.co/j3IrroDUSd

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• Oct 4, 20262.8x their median

  Honestly I think just picking up on the mood among institutional investors can give you a real edge. For example I attended an investment conference when I was in New York this year and Samsung Life Insurance was named there as an undervalued stock. Just a few days later foreign institutions bought Samsung Life in size. If you had been at that conference you could have made a decent return. Want another example? I'm in TMT BreakOut, a Substack Slack with a lot of institutional investors. Just from the chat there I can get hints about where institutions are focused right now. A few weeks ago someone posted "Why is everyone suddenly going long NVDA?" Now NVDA is at an ATH. I think there's a lot of value in retail being able to pick up on this kind of sentiment. *I received no compensation of any kind for writing this post.

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• Sep 10, 20262.5x their median

  https://t.co/8WhlMSIJUS DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 为 552B 参数的 MoE 模型，采用了全新的 Causal-Encoder-Decoder 结构，输入和输出不对称，输入激活只有 8B，输出激活 16B，成本显著低于已知的同尺寸模型。同时，V4.1 Flash 还采用了新的预训练方式、经过了更大规模的强化学习后训练，在基准测试中，成功超越了包括 DeepSeek V4 Pro 在内的一众旗舰模型的智能水平。

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• Sep 29, 20262.5x their median

  I remain bullish on CPUs over the long term. When I first saw AMD's 2027 Venice booking numbers, I wondered whether they were even realistic, and whether this would end up like last year, with overbooking followed by cuts. But after asking several people in the industry, I was told AMD is already selling 2028 volume. The yield issues also don't seem nearly as serious as early reports suggested.

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• Sep 9, 20262.2x their median

  * Kioxia CEO dismisses the possibility of closer cooperation with SK hynix * Kioxia aims to hold NAND prices steady to sustain AI demand * Kioxia CEO says he instructed employees not to raise memory prices sharply WTF?

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• Oct 2, 20262.1x their median

  KOREAN LOCAL MEDIA: SAMSUNG IS QUOTING A PRICE IN THE MID-TO-HIGH $4 RANGE PER GIGABIT IN ONGOING HBM4 PRICE NEGOTIATIONS WITH MAJOR CUSTOMERS. KOREAN LOCAL MEDIA: THIS IS MORE THAN THREE TIMES THE $1.50 PER GIGABIT PRICE OF HBM3E, THE CURRENT MAINSTREAM PRODUCT. $DRAM

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• Sep 30, 20262.1x their median

  Muse has already reached 5 million users... https://t.co/LvQneM0J82

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