Eric S. Raymond engagement report
@esrtweet - 63K followers on X
Measured over 29 original posts from a 30-day window, last computed on October 5, 2026.
Engagement
A typical post picks up 535 interactions against 63K followers, an engagement rate of 0.923%. Measured over 29 original posts, its engagement rate beats 83% of 20,445 tracked accounts of a similar size. Comparing inside a size band matters here: engagement rate falls as accounts grow, so a raw rate would mostly just re-measure the follower count. Posts are seen about 31K times each, and 1.73% of those impressions turn into an interaction. That is about 49.2% of the follower count, which is the gap between an audience on paper and an audience in a timeline. Posting runs at about 2.5 posts a day over the last 30 days, with activity on roughly 47% of days. Most posts go out around 10:00 UTC, and Monday is the busiest day of the week. Of the 29 posts sampled, 14% carry an image or video, 7% are part of a thread and 17% link out. The account's strongest tracked post pulled 56K interactions, about 105x its own typical post.
Measured over 29 original posts from a 30-day window, last computed on October 5, 2026.
Compared with accounts its own size
Eric S. Raymond's engagement rate beats 83% of the tracked X accounts closest to it in follower count (20,445 accounts, accounts of similar size (decile 5 of 10)). A percentile is spread evenly by construction, so 50 really is the middle of that group and 90 really is its top tenth.
On engagement per impression rather than per follower it beats 54% of the same group. When those two numbers disagree, the gap is about how far its posts travel rather than how people react to them.
Where this sits in the catalog
At 0.923%, Eric S. Raymond sits above the 75th percentile of the 204,583 accounts in this comparison. That places it in the top 25% band, which runs 0.677% to 2.55%.
Show the percentile table
| Percentile | Engagement rate |
|---|---|
| 10th percentile | 0.004% |
| 25th percentile | 0.024% |
| 50th percentile | 0.143% |
| 75th percentile | 0.677% |
| 90th percentile | 2.55% |
| 99th percentile | 82.4% |
This ruler is the whole measured catalog, not a size-matched group: it shows where the raw rate falls across every account we can measure, all of which are large. For a like-for-like comparison, read the size-band percentile above instead. See how the bands are built
Posting timing
This account posts most often around 10:00 UTC, and Monday is its busiest day of the week. The bars below are the catalog-wide pattern, with this account's own busiest slot marked. They do not show how this account performs at each hour: we keep one aggregate per account, not one per hour, so that measurement does not exist in our data.
Show engagement by hour posted, utc as a table
| Hour (UTC) | Vs author median | Posts |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00 UTC | -1% | 89K |
| 01:00 UTC | -2% | 90K |
| 02:00 UTC | -3% | 88K |
| 03:00 UTC | -4% | 94K |
| 04:00 UTC | -5% | 76K |
| 05:00 UTC | -4% | 75K |
| 06:00 UTC | -5% | 86K |
| 07:00 UTC | -5% | 93K |
| 08:00 UTC | -4% | 108K |
| 09:00 UTC | -4% | 124K |
| 10:00 UTC | -3% | 129K |
| 11:00 UTC | -3% | 141K |
| 12:00 UTC | -3% | 154K |
| 13:00 UTC | -3% | 167K |
| 14:00 UTC | -4% | 173K |
| 15:00 UTC | -2% | 176K |
| 16:00 UTC | -3% | 171K |
| 17:00 UTC | -3% | 159K |
| 18:00 UTC | -2% | 149K |
| 19:00 UTC | -2% | 141K |
| 20:00 UTC | -1% | 131K |
| 21:00 UTC | 0% | 116K |
| 22:00 UTC | -2% | 100K |
| 23:00 UTC | -1% | 90K |
Show engagement by day of week as a table
| Day | Vs author median | Posts |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday | +5% | 393K |
| Monday | +1% | 483K |
| Tuesday | -2% | 520K |
| Wednesday | -3% | 472K |
| Thursday | -2% | 430K |
| Friday | -3% | 447K |
| Saturday | +2% | 393K |
Formats this account uses
Its own posting mix on the left, and what each of those formats does across every account we track on the right. Only formats where the effect clears our publish test appear here, so an empty row is a format we could not measure rather than one that does nothing.
| Format | This account | Catalog effect | 95% interval | Accounts behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Image or video | 14% of posts | +111% | +108% to +115% | 34K |
| Outbound link | 17% of posts | -41% | -42% to -40% | 32K |
| Typical length | - | +15% | +14% to +16% | 32K |
- 14% of this account's sampled posts carry an image or video. Across the catalog, posts with an image or video run 111% above the same accounts' other posts.
- 17% of its posts carry a link off X. Across the catalog, posts with an outbound link run 41% below the same accounts' other posts.
- Its average post runs 1078 characters, which falls in the over 280 characters band. Across the catalog, posts over 280 characters run 15% above the same accounts' other posts.
These are catalog-wide differences applied to this account's own posting mix, not a measurement of how each format performs for this account specifically. We keep one median per account, not one per format per account, so the second thing is not something this data can tell you.
Best tweets
- Jan 31, 2026105x their median
The New York Post just revealed that the Gazan doctor who wrote two opinion pieces in the New York Times, accusing Israel of genocide after October 7th, is actually a Hamas terrorist himself. It turns out that Dr. Hussam Abu Safyia is a Hamas Colonel. https://t.co/awXjEcFUOJ
- Oct 3, 202631x their median
Iran has shifted its position from “Death to America” to “Vote Democrat”. 🤦🏻♀️
- Oct 5, 202612x their median
The end of software secrecy is almost upon us. The death of closed source, and the final triumph of open source. I should have realized this a few months ago when I successfully decompiled the game of Firefighter from an ancient DOS shareware binary. My robot friend was able to tell it had been written in Borland Pascal from looking at the data layout; it gave me back very readable Pascal code with sensibly chosen function and variable names. I transpiled it to Rust and now ship it as part of my heritage games collection. The thing is, I thought of this as a fun stunt but didn't have any confidence that the technique would scale up to large, real programs. I have since learned that people are now doing this sort of thing with entire AAA games, which are among the most complex software artifacts ever to be shipped as a binary. If they can be decompiled, anything can be. This has implications. Massive implications. We need to think about what the world is like when, in general, there is no longer a secrecy moat around almost any software at all. 1/2
- Sep 24, 202612x their median
I expected the Trump tariffs to be a disaster. I'm puzzled by what I'm not seeing. They don't seem to have harmed the US economy in any way I can notice with my eyeballs or in the statistics. Business activity is booming, unemployment seems to be low, household consumption is up, stock market seems to be doing fine. Is my whole model of trade and economics broken? How is he getting away with this?
- Oct 3, 20268.4x their median
This morning it finally came home to me. I will probably never write another program in C again. Which is a big deal. I've been writing C since 1983. 43 years is a long time and a lot of skill investment. It's not like I didn't see this coming. I've been writing about the decline of C for years, predicting that it would be displaced by newer systems languages with better safety guarantees and more coherent designs. It wasn't better language design alone that did it, though. It's how good LLMs now are at generating code from specs and prompts. This means I can speak a program into existence in Rust or Go without any more effort than would be required to conjure it up in C. What makes this particularly dramatic is that I never learned to hand-code in Rust. And now - I don't need to. What a long, strange trip it's been.
- Aug 15, 20266.7x their median
IPCC HUMAN CO₂ ATTRIBUTION PROVEN MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE Fossil carbon contributes ≈ZERO to the observed rise in atmospheric CO₂. The Keeling intercept has remained locked at δ¹³C_I ≈ −13‰ for five full centuries, while fossil emissions rose from essentially nothing to ~10 GtC yr⁻¹. A large fossil fraction would have dragged the intercept toward −28‰. It didn't budge. The only value consistent with a fixed intercept is fossil fraction f ≈ 0. IPCC’s own methods, own isotopic standards, and own data force the conclusion: Human fossil emissions are not the cause of the rise in atmospheric CO₂. PERIOD. The claim is mathematically dead. Full mathematical proof: https://t.co/qYpY0qiGxv
- Oct 4, 20265.7x their median
12 months of progress on the jagged frontier: 1) AI got spikier, not rounder. 2) Maths, fluid reasoning, expert work: past human level. 3) There is almost no middle ground. Once a capability crosses human level, it often quickly becomes 100x+ cheaper than a human. 4) Cost keeps decreasing after capability increases stop. Language and knowledge look saturated but price keeps falling. 5) The gaps are not a budget issue. Human-level memory, self-monitoring and long-run planning are not for sale at any price. AI is now a superhuman specialist that is sub-human at running itself.
- Sep 27, 20265.7x their median
They bring the bread before you have even settled into the booth. This is not a gesture of kindness. It is a siege tactic designed to destroy the structural integrity of the human ego. The rolls arrive in a basket lined with red paper, pulsing with thermal energy, glowing like freshly forged ingots from the fires of Mount Doom. Beside them lies a silver tub of cinnamon-honey butter. "I will eat one," I said to myself. A man who believes he can eat one Texas Roadhouse roll is a man who believes he can negotiate with a tsunami. The bread does not require chewing. It surrenders instantly to the teeth, collapsing into a sweet, yeasty cloud of pure dopamine. The butter melts on contact, weaponized with enough sugar to fell an ox. I had ordered an eighteen-ounce ribeye. It was resting on a grill ten yards away. It had a future. It had a purpose. By the time the waitress returned with my water, the basket was empty. Only a few crumbs remained, like ashes after a forest fire. She looked at the empty basket. She did not ask. She was an agent of chaos. She produced a second basket from beneath the tray, steaming, golden, fatal. "Need more butter, darlin'?" I looked at the woman. I saw what she was doing. She was attempting to drown my mortal flesh in carbohydrates before the protein could arrive to save me. This was the ancient hospitality of the frontier—so aggressive, so terrifyingly abundant, that to refuse it was to insult the concept of survival itself. I did not refuse. "Yes, ma'am," I said, my voice shaking. When the ribeye arrived twenty minutes later, I looked upon it with the hollow eyes of a man who has already consumed two thousand calories of wheat and lies. I took the steak home in a styrofoam box. The rolls had won. The rolls always win.
- Oct 1, 20265.3x their median
Due to AI, I have disabled external pull requests on all my repos. Open source, as we have known it, was fun while it lasted. (It’s been 15 years for me) I will still maintain projects and handle issues.
- Oct 1, 20263.5x their median
I've now read a summary of what the Jane Doe in the Cornell alleged gang rape told police immediately after the incident. I must say that I'm struck by how well everyone conducted themselves, and I'm including the men. The woman asked for and got what she wanted. The men she said "no" to took no for an answer. Afterwards, she was up for having sex with male #1 again at a future time, which suggests that he gave the satisfaction he should have. If we're going to have a society of sexual liberty, this is what right conduct looks like. Maybe you think that it was disgraceful for a woman to request a drunken threesome, and for the men to fulfill the request. I won't argue that. When I've been offered sex by an intoxicated woman I found attractive, my policy has been to thank her with an appreciative kiss and then say "Ask me again when you're sober." But whatever this was, it wasn't rape. If women have the right to be treated as adults and make sexual choices for themselves, they have the right to make questionable, drunken choices too. The real villain of these piece is whoever talked Jane Doe into believing she was a rape victim.
Ranked by total interactions across everything we have tracked for this account, which is a longer history than the 30-day window the rates above use. The multiple compares each post to this account's own median.
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Reading these numbers
A typical post picks up 535 interactions against 63K followers, an engagement rate of 0.923%. Measured over 29 original posts, its engagement rate beats 83% of 20,445 tracked accounts of a similar size. Comparing inside a size band matters here: engagement rate falls as accounts grow, so a raw rate would mostly just re-measure the follower count. Posts are seen about 31K times each, and 1.73% of those impressions turn into an interaction. That is about 49.2% of the follower count, which is the gap between an audience on paper and an audience in a timeline. Posting runs at about 2.5 posts a day over the last 30 days, with activity on roughly 47% of days. Most posts go out around 10:00 UTC, and Monday is the busiest day of the week. Of the 29 posts sampled, 14% carry an image or video, 7% are part of a thread and 17% link out. The account's strongest tracked post pulled 56K interactions, about 105x its own typical post.
- What is Eric S. Raymond's engagement rate on X?
- Eric S. Raymond (@esrtweet) has an engagement rate of 0.923%, based on the median interactions across 29 original posts from the last 30 days against 62,960 followers. Replies, reposts and quote-posts of other people are excluded from that sample.
- Is that a good engagement rate?
- At 0.923%, Eric S. Raymond sits above the 75th percentile of the 204,583 accounts in this comparison. Those comparison accounts are all large ones, because our scanning cadence is weighted towards big accounts, so this is a ranking among peers of similar scale rather than a ranking across X.
- Does @esrtweet have real engagement?
- Its engagement rate beats 83% of the tracked X accounts closest to it in follower count (20,445 accounts), which puts it in the top quarter for its size group. Ranking inside a size band matters because engagement rate falls as accounts grow, so a raw rate would mostly re-measure the follower count. It is a starting point for a look at follower quality, not a verdict on it.
- When does @esrtweet post?
- Most posts go out around 10:00 UTC, and Monday is its busiest day, at roughly 2.5 posts per day across the measured window.