Paulo Macro engagement report
@PauloMacro - 198K followers on X
Measured over 26 original posts from a 30-day window, last computed on October 10, 2026.
Engagement
A typical post picks up 180 interactions against 198K followers, an engagement rate of 0.091%. Measured over 26 original posts, its engagement rate beats 58% of 20,444 tracked accounts of a similar size, which puts it in the middle of its size range rather than at either end. Posts are seen about 29K times each, and 0.611% of those impressions turn into an interaction. That is about 14.9% of the follower count, which is the gap between an audience on paper and an audience in a timeline. Posting runs at about 2.1 posts a day over the last 30 days, with activity on roughly 73% of days. Most posts go out around 15:00 UTC, and Monday is the busiest day of the week. Of the 26 posts sampled, 46% carry an image or video and 27% link out. The account's strongest tracked post pulled 11K interactions, about 61x its own typical post.
Measured over 26 original posts from a 30-day window, last computed on October 10, 2026. Recurring tag: #oott.
Compared with accounts its own size
Paulo Macro's engagement rate beats 58% of the tracked X accounts closest to it in follower count (20,444 accounts, accounts of similar size (decile 9 of 10)). A percentile is spread evenly by construction, so 50 really is the middle of that group and 90 really is its top tenth.
On engagement per impression rather than per follower it beats 30% of the same group. When those two numbers disagree, the gap is about how far its posts travel rather than how people react to them.
Where this sits in the catalog
At 0.091%, Paulo Macro sits above the 25th percentile of the 205,261 accounts in this comparison. That places it in the below the median band, which runs 0.024% to 0.143%.
Show the percentile table
| Percentile | Engagement rate |
|---|---|
| 10th percentile | 0.004% |
| 25th percentile | 0.024% |
| 50th percentile | 0.143% |
| 75th percentile | 0.678% |
| 90th percentile | 2.55% |
| 99th percentile | 82.4% |
This ruler is the whole measured catalog, not a size-matched group: it shows where the raw rate falls across every account we can measure, all of which are large. For a like-for-like comparison, read the size-band percentile above instead. See how the bands are built
Posting timing
This account posts most often around 15:00 UTC, and Monday is its busiest day of the week. The bars below are the catalog-wide pattern, with this account's own busiest slot marked. They do not show how this account performs at each hour: we keep one aggregate per account, not one per hour, so that measurement does not exist in our data.
Show engagement by hour posted, utc as a table
| Hour (UTC) | Vs author median | Posts |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00 UTC | -1% | 89K |
| 01:00 UTC | -2% | 90K |
| 02:00 UTC | -3% | 88K |
| 03:00 UTC | -4% | 94K |
| 04:00 UTC | -5% | 76K |
| 05:00 UTC | -4% | 75K |
| 06:00 UTC | -5% | 86K |
| 07:00 UTC | -5% | 93K |
| 08:00 UTC | -4% | 108K |
| 09:00 UTC | -4% | 124K |
| 10:00 UTC | -3% | 129K |
| 11:00 UTC | -3% | 141K |
| 12:00 UTC | -3% | 154K |
| 13:00 UTC | -3% | 167K |
| 14:00 UTC | -4% | 173K |
| 15:00 UTC | -2% | 176K |
| 16:00 UTC | -3% | 171K |
| 17:00 UTC | -3% | 159K |
| 18:00 UTC | -2% | 149K |
| 19:00 UTC | -2% | 141K |
| 20:00 UTC | -1% | 131K |
| 21:00 UTC | 0% | 116K |
| 22:00 UTC | -2% | 100K |
| 23:00 UTC | -1% | 90K |
Show engagement by day of week as a table
| Day | Vs author median | Posts |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday | +5% | 393K |
| Monday | +1% | 483K |
| Tuesday | -2% | 520K |
| Wednesday | -3% | 472K |
| Thursday | -2% | 430K |
| Friday | -3% | 447K |
| Saturday | +2% | 393K |
Formats this account uses
Its own posting mix on the left, and what each of those formats does across every account we track on the right. Only formats where the effect clears our publish test appear here, so an empty row is a format we could not measure rather than one that does nothing.
| Format | This account | Catalog effect | 95% interval | Accounts behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Image or video | 46% of posts | +111% | +108% to +115% | 34K |
| Outbound link | 27% of posts | -41% | -42% to -40% | 32K |
| Typical length | - | no effect | -2% to -1% | 42K |
- 46% of this account's sampled posts carry an image or video. Across the catalog, posts with an image or video run 111% above the same accounts' other posts.
- 27% of its posts carry a link off X. Across the catalog, posts with an outbound link run 41% below the same accounts' other posts.
- Its average post runs 201 characters, which falls in the 180 - 280 characters band. Across the catalog, posts of 180 to 280 characters match the same accounts' other posts almost exactly.
These are catalog-wide differences applied to this account's own posting mix, not a measurement of how each format performs for this account specifically. We keep one median per account, not one per format per account, so the second thing is not something this data can tell you.
Best tweets
- Sep 5, 202661x their median
BREAKING: For the first time since the start of the war, Iran's IRGC attempted to hit a US nuclear aircraft carrier in the Gulf of Oman yesterday, using the Qasem Basir medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile which has a range of approximately 1,200km. In response to the strike, US CENTCOM has permanently disabled 3 Iranian oil tankers, including the M/T Downy off the coast of Kharg Island, the M/T Stark 1 near Jask, and the M/T Kylo in the Gulf of Oman. Iran now directly warns Trump that "All US naval ships are now targets. Any strikes on Iranian ships will be met with multiple strikes on vessels linked to countries participating in the anti-Iranian aggression." Iran is again launching anti-ship cruise missiles toward a US aircraft carrier and/or vessels under US Navy escort in the past few minutes, per initial reports.
- Sep 14, 202644x their median
Ukrainian attack drones appear to have hit Russia’s Syzran oil refinery tonight. Multiple fires could be seen rising from the refinery complex. https://t.co/DKTdHYiIF2
- Oct 5, 202643x their median
My friend’s dad works for the FSB. He got called in for an emergency meeting today. Came back late and wouldn’t explain anything. Just told us to pack our things and go stock up on two weeks’ worth of food. We’re driving somewhere far outside the city now. I don’t know what’s going on, but I have a feeling it’s begun…
- Sep 9, 202622x their median
Back in my day, we didn’t have to spend $2 trillion to copy someone’s maths homework 🥹 https://t.co/xqVzFCzvAB
- Sep 3, 20268.4x their median
Gang. The cover of the fuking Economist is literally Jensen as a magician https://t.co/MHMLeqdF8X
- Sep 6, 20268.2x their median
Been long Copper since 2023. Not naive enough to expect up-only in a straight line, but the macro thesis is still screaming bull. S&P Global dropped some great charts, so let’s strip away the noise and run through the structural supply: 1) The tier-1 discovery pipeline is in a total desert. Down from 714.8Mt in the ‘90s to a pathetic 8.7Mt over 2020–2025. Mega discoveries are basically extinct. 2) Capex burns are back up past $3B annually on exploration, yet the hit rate is completely cooked—netting a measly 0-2 discoveries a year. Trash ROIC... 3) Discovery cost per tonne went from ~$10 in the ‘90s to an eye watering $1,000–$2,600+ print today. Not a temporary blip; it’s a secular blowout in finding costs. 4) Gone are the days of unlocking multi tens of million monsters like Collahuasi or Pebble. Today’s wins are 1–2Mt crumbs that don't move the global balance needle. 5) More than half (55%) of cumulative reserves are concentrated in South America, while Africa—such as the DRC—is gradually taking up a larger share. South America has recently slipped into operational and production slumps, and Africa continues to suffer from political instability. 6) Roughly 500Mt of identified reserves have been rotting in prefeasibility purgatory for decades. Permitting hell, eco-lawfare, and zero IRR. Bless the regulators and green grifters for choking. 7) C-suites are terrified of greenfield risk. They’ve completely castrated wildcat budgets to hide inside safe brownfield pit extensions. Structural consequence. Zero chance of hitting a generational tier-1 asset. 8) Copper mining typically takes over 15-20 years from discovery to actual commercial production (operational), the current exploration slump translates directly into a future production cliff. This is an undeniable fact. 9) Megawatt power grids, EV buildouts, and AI data centers are devouring physical units, while the project pipeline is running bone dry. Sure, the demand ceiling floats on the macro tape, but this structural supply paralysis puts a bulletproof concrete floor under the market. 10) Marginal incentive pricing and long term cost floors have nowhere to go but violently up and to the right. So what's priced into the equities? Large caps are still riding a fat liquidity premium over the mid/small cap complex. Ivanhoe’s lagging for obvious DRC baggage, but look at the implied copper price deck. Freeport is pricing in $6.25/lb. First Quamtum is at $5.92/lb. Lundin sits at $5.44/lb, Capstone at $5.37/lb, my horse Hudbay at $4.73/lb, and Ivanhoe down at $3.95/lb. Of course each name has a different setup. In the case of Hudbay, which I hold, precious account for nearly 45% of annual revenue, whereas First Quantum and Freeport sit around the 10% mark. Naturally i'm completely fine with this since I'm structurally bullish on precious as well. What I want to say is that while we must closely monitor that the copper thesis doesn't derail, if you have conviction in the trajectory, equities still offer massive upside. Demand downside risk? Sure conceded. If Xi pulls the trigger on Taiwan or Jensen and Sam Altman get perp walked by the feds for running an AI Ponzi(lol), things will hit the fan. Outside of those black swans, the supply side reality is downright apocalyptic—and the operational bleed coming out of Chile just hammers the nail in the coffin. In commodity risk, when the supply side guarantees a rock solid floor, you’ve already eliminated half your downside distribution. Still max constructive on copper. Until the tape changes my thesis, I’m letting my winners run and fading the short term chop. Along with $HBM, I hold two junior miners. Certified worst PM on the planet and talking exclusively to pump my own book like the conflicted scumbag I am, so don't take this as financial advice. #copper
- Sep 23, 20258.0x their median
https://t.co/rRaPEGGYWX
- Sep 14, 20267.4x their median
FED It's popular to suggest the 10y yield will fall if the Fed hikes rates this week. Unless this is a "one and done" hike, though, history suggests the 10y will rise as the hike cycle progresses. The 10y has risen in every modern hike cycle (especially early in the cycle). https://t.co/uluCwhJVzW
- Aug 20, 20266.3x their median
Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: We are going to have the toughest sanctions in history, and I will tell you, this will work. It worked in Venezuela once we put up the blockade. It is working in Cuba right now, and it is going to work in Iran, and we are going to collapse this regime.
- Mar 31, 20224.0x their median
Nothing I say should be construed as investment advice. I do not know your circumstance and so please treat my tweets as nothing more than what my thoughts are & what I’m doing with my own money. Please do your own work and consult your own financial advisor.
Ranked by total interactions across everything we have tracked for this account, which is a longer history than the 30-day window the rates above use. The multiple compares each post to this account's own median.
Recurring topics
The most frequent hashtags in the sampled posts. They describe what this account writes about; they are not a performance signal, and the catalog-wide breakdown on the hub shows how little hashtag count moves.
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Reading these numbers
A typical post picks up 180 interactions against 198K followers, an engagement rate of 0.091%. Measured over 26 original posts, its engagement rate beats 58% of 20,444 tracked accounts of a similar size, which puts it in the middle of its size range rather than at either end. Posts are seen about 29K times each, and 0.611% of those impressions turn into an interaction. That is about 14.9% of the follower count, which is the gap between an audience on paper and an audience in a timeline. Posting runs at about 2.1 posts a day over the last 30 days, with activity on roughly 73% of days. Most posts go out around 15:00 UTC, and Monday is the busiest day of the week. Of the 26 posts sampled, 46% carry an image or video and 27% link out. The account's strongest tracked post pulled 11K interactions, about 61x its own typical post.
- What is Paulo Macro's engagement rate on X?
- Paulo Macro (@PauloMacro) has an engagement rate of 0.091%, based on the median interactions across 26 original posts from the last 30 days against 197,911 followers. Replies, reposts and quote-posts of other people are excluded from that sample.
- Is that a good engagement rate?
- At 0.091%, Paulo Macro sits above the 25th percentile of the 205,261 accounts in this comparison. Those comparison accounts are all large ones, because our scanning cadence is weighted towards big accounts, so this is a ranking among peers of similar scale rather than a ranking across X.
- Does @PauloMacro have real engagement?
- Its engagement rate beats 58% of the tracked X accounts closest to it in follower count (20,444 accounts), which puts it in the middle of its size range group. Ranking inside a size band matters because engagement rate falls as accounts grow, so a raw rate would mostly re-measure the follower count. It is a starting point for a look at follower quality, not a verdict on it.
- When does @PauloMacro post?
- Most posts go out around 15:00 UTC, and Monday is its busiest day, at roughly 2.07 posts per day across the measured window.