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Nate Silver engagement report

@NateSilver538 - 3.0M followers on X

Measured over 58 original posts from a 30-day window, last computed on October 25, 2026.

Engagement

Middle of its size range
Per follower
0.034%
of 3.0M followers
Per impression
0.586%
176K views on a typical post
Reach
5.79%
of its followers see a post
Typical post
1.0K
interactions (median)
Saved
0.037%
64 bookmarks on a typical post
Posting rate
4.83/day
active 93% of days
Peak time
22:00 UTC
Thursday

A typical post picks up 1.0K interactions against 3.0M followers, an engagement rate of 0.034%. Measured over 58 original posts, its engagement rate beats 53% of 20,444 tracked accounts of a similar size, which puts it in the middle of its size range rather than at either end. Posts are seen about 176K times each, and 0.586% of those impressions turn into an interaction. That is about 5.79% of the follower count, which is the gap between an audience on paper and an audience in a timeline. Posting runs at about 4.8 posts a day over the last 30 days, with activity on almost every day in the window. Most posts go out around 22:00 UTC, and Thursday is the busiest day of the week. Of the 58 posts sampled, 47% carry an image or video, 62% are part of a thread and 14% link out. The account's strongest tracked post pulled 27K interactions, about 26x its own typical post.

Measured over 58 original posts from a 30-day window, last computed on October 25, 2026.

Compared with accounts its own size

Nate Silver's engagement rate beats 53% of the tracked X accounts closest to it in follower count (20,444 accounts, accounts of similar size (decile 10 of 10)). A percentile is spread evenly by construction, so 50 really is the middle of that group and 90 really is its top tenth.

On engagement per impression rather than per follower it beats 34% of the same group. When those two numbers disagree, the gap is about how far its posts travel rather than how people react to them.

Where this sits in the catalog

At 0.034%, Nate Silver sits above the 25th percentile of the 204,491 accounts in this comparison. That places it in the below the median band, which runs 0.024% to 0.143%.

p100.004%
p250.024%
p50 (median)0.143%
p750.677%
p902.55%
p9982.4%
Engagement rate as a share of followers, across the 204,491 accounts we have scanned enough to measure. The axis is logarithmic, because the top and bottom of this population are about 22,891 times apart and a linear axis would flatten everything below the median into a single point.
Show the percentile table
Engagement rate percentiles
PercentileEngagement rate
10th percentile0.004%
25th percentile0.024%
50th percentile0.143%
75th percentile0.677%
90th percentile2.55%
99th percentile82.4%

This ruler is the whole measured catalog, not a size-matched group: it shows where the raw rate falls across every account we can measure, all of which are large. For a like-for-like comparison, read the size-band percentile above instead. See how the bands are built

Posting timing

This account posts most often around 22:00 UTC, and Thursday is its busiest day of the week. The bars below are the catalog-wide pattern, with this account's own busiest slot marked. They do not show how this account performs at each hour: we keep one aggregate per account, not one per hour, so that measurement does not exist in our data.

Engagement by hour posted, UTCTwenty-four bars, one per UTC hour. Each bar shows how posts published in that hour compare with their own authors' median engagement. Bars above the centre line ran higher than the median, bars below ran lower. A marker flags Busiest hour: 22:00 UTC.
0003060912151821
Above the authors' own mediansBelowScale: plus or minus 111%Busiest hour: 22:00 UTC
Show engagement by hour posted, utc as a table
Engagement by hour posted, UTC
Hour (UTC)Vs author medianPosts
00:00 UTC-1%89K
01:00 UTC-2%90K
02:00 UTC-3%88K
03:00 UTC-4%94K
04:00 UTC-5%76K
05:00 UTC-4%75K
06:00 UTC-5%86K
07:00 UTC-5%93K
08:00 UTC-4%108K
09:00 UTC-4%124K
10:00 UTC-3%129K
11:00 UTC-3%141K
12:00 UTC-3%154K
13:00 UTC-3%167K
14:00 UTC-4%173K
15:00 UTC-2%176K
16:00 UTC-3%171K
17:00 UTC-3%159K
18:00 UTC-2%149K
19:00 UTC-2%141K
20:00 UTC-1%131K
21:00 UTC0%116K
22:00 UTC-2%100K
23:00 UTC-1%90K
Engagement by day of weekSeven bars, one per weekday, Sunday first. Each bar shows how posts published on that day compare with their own authors' median engagement. Bars above the centre line ran higher than the median, bars below ran lower. A marker flags Busiest day: Thursday.
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Above the authors' own mediansBelowScale: plus or minus 111%Busiest day: Thursday
Show engagement by day of week as a table
Engagement by day of week
DayVs author medianPosts
Sunday+5%393K
Monday+1%483K
Tuesday-2%520K
Wednesday-3%472K
Thursday-2%430K
Friday-3%447K
Saturday+2%393K
See what moves engagement across the whole catalogWhat counts as a good engagement rate at this size

Formats this account uses

Its own posting mix on the left, and what each of those formats does across every account we track on the right. Only formats where the effect clears our publish test appear here, so an empty row is a format we could not measure rather than one that does nothing.

This account's posting mix compared with catalog-wide effects
FormatThis accountCatalog effect95% intervalAccounts behind it
Image or video47% of posts+111%+108% to +115%34K
Outbound link14% of posts-41%-42% to -40%32K
Typical length-no effect-2% to -1%42K
  • 47% of this account's sampled posts carry an image or video. Across the catalog, posts with an image or video run 111% above the same accounts' other posts.
  • 14% of its posts carry a link off X. Across the catalog, posts with an outbound link run 41% below the same accounts' other posts.
  • Its average post runs 204 characters, which falls in the 180 - 280 characters band. Across the catalog, posts of 180 to 280 characters match the same accounts' other posts almost exactly.

These are catalog-wide differences applied to this account's own posting mix, not a measurement of how each format performs for this account specifically. We keep one median per account, not one per format per account, so the second thing is not something this data can tell you.

Best tweets

  • Aug 7, 202626x their median

    BREAKING: Kawhi Leonard had a hidden, multimillion-dollar "sponsorship" with Clippers' scoreboard-maker, sources tell @PabloTorre. "It was 1,000% a way to circumvent the salary cap," insider says. In our investigation, Daktronics' Ballmer-linked crisis firm raises NBA probe ⤵️ https://t.co/LU1AeBAF44

    22K2.5K7951.7K8.6M viewsView on X
  • Aug 3, 202616x their median

    Leaked memo shows Republicans privately see Francesca Hong as "uniquely dangerous" in the general election & that “more moderate and establishment Democratic alternatives would likely produce lower base motivation and depressed turnout": https://t.co/vQRDU8hxox

    14K2.2K3672791.9M viewsView on X
  • Sep 26, 202612x their median

    AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks.

    11K657367243849K viewsView on X
  • Sep 15, 202610x their median

    I've been covering politics since 2008. The anti-AI-regulation takes from the left (by no means all/most of the left; Bernie disagrees!!!) might be the most literally incomprehensible political position I've ever encountered.

    9.3K5214501501.3M viewsView on X
  • Aug 27, 20269.2x their median

    Gulf of America didn't even bother me so much but Lake America sounds like a waterslide park where everyone gets tetanus.

    8.7K47225140397K viewsView on X
  • Aug 5, 20268.7x their median

    Michigan has open primaries. Mike Rogers had the nomination locked. How many Republicans voted for Stevens?

    8.2K32034599514K viewsView on X
  • Sep 22, 20268.3x their median

    Polls for Republicans are just getting worse by the day in a way that isn't actually all that common in midterms. It's gotta be mostly the gas prices, although maybe AI anxieties are also reverberating negatively for the GOP. Model update out soon.

    7.6K56232485820K viewsView on X
  • Aug 17, 20266.9x their median

    Rare unironic life advice. It can be great for many people but if you're on the fence about whether to go to some sort of graduate school, i.e. you don't have something fairly specific you're trying to accomplish, probably don't. A much worse value proposition than 20 years ago.

    6.7K2281391051.0M viewsView on X
  • Sep 20, 20265.7x their median

    Move the Chargers back to San Diego. Or to Mexico City or something. They're kind of a liminal franchise at this point, the equivalent of an auxiliary airport terminal.

    5.5K18514348313K viewsView on X
  • Oct 10, 20265.3x their median

    Kind of striking how persistent the decline in Trump's approval rating has been. There's been mean reversion around news events and economic data, but to a declining rather than steady baseline as in the 1st term. https://t.co/qiKSU9FQUn

    4.7K55820093385K viewsView on X

Ranked by total interactions across everything we have tracked for this account, which is a longer history than the 30-day window the rates above use. The multiple compares each post to this account's own median.

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Reading these numbers

A typical post picks up 1.0K interactions against 3.0M followers, an engagement rate of 0.034%. Measured over 58 original posts, its engagement rate beats 53% of 20,444 tracked accounts of a similar size, which puts it in the middle of its size range rather than at either end. Posts are seen about 176K times each, and 0.586% of those impressions turn into an interaction. That is about 5.79% of the follower count, which is the gap between an audience on paper and an audience in a timeline. Posting runs at about 4.8 posts a day over the last 30 days, with activity on almost every day in the window. Most posts go out around 22:00 UTC, and Thursday is the busiest day of the week. Of the 58 posts sampled, 47% carry an image or video, 62% are part of a thread and 14% link out. The account's strongest tracked post pulled 27K interactions, about 26x its own typical post.

What is Nate Silver's engagement rate on X?
Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) has an engagement rate of 0.034%, based on the median interactions across 58 original posts from the last 30 days against 3,046,356 followers. Replies, reposts and quote-posts of other people are excluded from that sample.
Is that a good engagement rate?
At 0.034%, Nate Silver sits above the 25th percentile of the 204,491 accounts in this comparison. Those comparison accounts are all large ones, because our scanning cadence is weighted towards big accounts, so this is a ranking among peers of similar scale rather than a ranking across X.
Does @NateSilver538 have real engagement?
Its engagement rate beats 53% of the tracked X accounts closest to it in follower count (20,444 accounts), which puts it in the middle of its size range group. Ranking inside a size band matters because engagement rate falls as accounts grow, so a raw rate would mostly re-measure the follower count. It is a starting point for a look at follower quality, not a verdict on it.
When does @NateSilver538 post?
Most posts go out around 22:00 UTC, and Thursday is its busiest day, at roughly 4.83 posts per day across the measured window.

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