Lawrence McDonald engagement report
@Convertbond - 145K followers on X
Measured over 27 original posts from a 30-day window, last computed on September 26, 2026.
Engagement
A typical post picks up 97 interactions against 145K followers, an engagement rate of 0.067%. Measured over 27 original posts, its engagement rate beats 47% of 21,185 tracked accounts of a similar size, which puts it in the middle of its size range rather than at either end. Posts are seen about 16K times each, and 0.602% of those impressions turn into an interaction. That is about 11.1% of the follower count, which is the gap between an audience on paper and an audience in a timeline. Posting runs at about 2.3 posts a day over the last 30 days, with activity on roughly 60% of days. Most posts go out around 11:00 UTC, and Friday is the busiest day of the week. Of the 27 posts sampled, 44% carry an image or video, 19% are part of a thread and 11% link out. The account's strongest tracked post pulled 5.5K interactions, about 57x its own typical post.
Measured over 27 original posts from a 30-day window, last computed on September 26, 2026.
Compared with accounts its own size
Lawrence McDonald's engagement rate beats 47% of the tracked X accounts closest to it in follower count (21,185 accounts, accounts of similar size (decile 8 of 10)). A percentile is spread evenly by construction, so 50 really is the middle of that group and 90 really is its top tenth.
On engagement per impression rather than per follower it beats 29% of the same group. When those two numbers disagree, the gap is about how far its posts travel rather than how people react to them.
Where this sits in the catalog
At 0.067%, Lawrence McDonald sits above the 25th percentile of the 212,925 accounts in this comparison. That places it in the below the median band, which runs 0.025% to 0.146%.
Show the percentile table
| Percentile | Engagement rate |
|---|---|
| 10th percentile | 0.004% |
| 25th percentile | 0.025% |
| 50th percentile | 0.146% |
| 75th percentile | 0.698% |
| 90th percentile | 2.61% |
| 99th percentile | 83.0% |
This ruler is the whole measured catalog, not a size-matched group: it shows where the raw rate falls across every account we can measure, all of which are large. For a like-for-like comparison, read the size-band percentile above instead. See how the bands are built
Posting timing
This account posts most often around 11:00 UTC, and Friday is its busiest day of the week. The bars below are the catalog-wide pattern, with this account's own busiest slot marked. They do not show how this account performs at each hour: we keep one aggregate per account, not one per hour, so that measurement does not exist in our data.
Show engagement by hour posted, utc as a table
| Hour (UTC) | Vs author median | Posts |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00 UTC | -1% | 89K |
| 01:00 UTC | -2% | 90K |
| 02:00 UTC | -3% | 88K |
| 03:00 UTC | -4% | 94K |
| 04:00 UTC | -5% | 76K |
| 05:00 UTC | -4% | 75K |
| 06:00 UTC | -5% | 86K |
| 07:00 UTC | -5% | 93K |
| 08:00 UTC | -4% | 108K |
| 09:00 UTC | -4% | 124K |
| 10:00 UTC | -3% | 129K |
| 11:00 UTC | -3% | 141K |
| 12:00 UTC | -3% | 154K |
| 13:00 UTC | -3% | 167K |
| 14:00 UTC | -4% | 173K |
| 15:00 UTC | -2% | 176K |
| 16:00 UTC | -3% | 171K |
| 17:00 UTC | -3% | 159K |
| 18:00 UTC | -2% | 149K |
| 19:00 UTC | -2% | 141K |
| 20:00 UTC | -1% | 131K |
| 21:00 UTC | 0% | 116K |
| 22:00 UTC | -2% | 100K |
| 23:00 UTC | -1% | 90K |
Show engagement by day of week as a table
| Day | Vs author median | Posts |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday | +5% | 393K |
| Monday | +1% | 483K |
| Tuesday | -2% | 520K |
| Wednesday | -3% | 472K |
| Thursday | -2% | 430K |
| Friday | -3% | 447K |
| Saturday | +2% | 393K |
Formats this account uses
Its own posting mix on the left, and what each of those formats does across every account we track on the right. Only formats where the effect clears our publish test appear here, so an empty row is a format we could not measure rather than one that does nothing.
| Format | This account | Catalog effect | 95% interval | Accounts behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Image or video | 44% of posts | +111% | +108% to +115% | 34K |
| Outbound link | 11% of posts | -41% | -42% to -40% | 32K |
| Typical length | - | +15% | +14% to +16% | 32K |
- 44% of this account's sampled posts carry an image or video. Across the catalog, posts with an image or video run 111% above the same accounts' other posts.
- 11% of its posts carry a link off X. Across the catalog, posts with an outbound link run 41% below the same accounts' other posts.
- Its average post runs 334 characters, which falls in the over 280 characters band. Across the catalog, posts over 280 characters run 15% above the same accounts' other posts.
These are catalog-wide differences applied to this account's own posting mix, not a measurement of how each format performs for this account specifically. We keep one median per account, not one per format per account, so the second thing is not something this data can tell you.
Best tweets
- Feb 18, 202257x their median
Gold is money, everything else is credit. JP Morgan, the panic of 1907.
- Sep 23, 202616x their median
60% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading below their 100-day moving average, the worst market breadth since March 🚨 https://t.co/rFWC4wCZwC
- Sep 13, 20263.7x their median
SEN: CRUDE CAN NO LONGER BALANCE THIS MARKET-UPWARD SPIRAL BETWEEN CRUDE AND PRODUCTS That is one of the best analyses of oil I have seen so far. Dr. Amrita Sen, founder and Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, was asked how much higher crude can run before it hits a new ceiling. Her answer is not a price target. It is a physical warning: the cap was never the crude quote. It was refining margins — and those margins are now so extreme that diesel is pulling oil higher with it. THE REAL CEILING ➡️ Sen says the ceiling for crude “has always been refining margins.” Refined products are the tight piece, not the barrel on the screen. US diesel is already above $6, a record. The diesel crack has been close to $100. ➡️ West-of-Suez refiners still have a fat margin buffer, which is why crude can keep rising even after the first leg of the rally. That is the setup Energy Aspects flagged for months. Products stay expensive. Crude is being dragged up behind them. THE AUGUST INFLECTION On August 20 her house put out a note: the inflection for crude was already here. ➡️ Inventories have drawn down fast since late August. ➡️ Hormuz flows remain disrupted. China is buying again — not at pre-war levels, she stresses, but well above the spring slump that briefly let the market balance. Winter is coming and refiners need the barrels. ➡️ “Crude isn’t going to go down anytime soon.” Headlines will whip the tape up and down. Sen’s base path is still higher. ASIA IS ALREADY CUTTING RUNS Global refining margins look near record highs. Sen says almost all of that strength sits in the United States and Europe. In the East the buffer is gone. Hormuz is still heavily disrupted. A late-August pickup in flows reversed almost immediately. Yanbu loadings fell after Houthi attacks. Dubai backwardation ran to about $30. Freight to move a ship into Hormuz and on to Asia is being quoted around $55 million. ➡️ Asian refiners are the ones feeling the pinch. ➡️ This is a run cut driven by crude availability, not weak product demand. The West can still pay. Asia is starting to lose the crude. THE UPWARD SPIRAL For months, Sen says, crude only balanced because products were “super strong.” That trick is ending. Demand for crude itself is growing while supplies are down. Diesel still has to rise because there is not enough of it. That strength then lifts the barrel underneath it. ➡️ “It’s going to be an upward spiral between crude and products now.” Not a one-day squeeze. A loop. NO BUFFER LEFT Strategic stocks will not rescue this the way politicians talk about volume. ➡️ US and Japanese SPRs are already at record-low levels. The real constraint, Sen says, is not the headline number. It is flow rate from caverns that are running too low to be sustainable, plus the quality of very old crude sitting in those tanks. China’s commercial reserves that were drawn have to be repaid within three months, so some buying is already back. Japan has tendered for 4 million barrels by year-end and 25 million next year — refill at these prices, not cheaper ones. When the MOU was signed and barrels came out, governments and companies got complacent. The story was that OPEC would surge production. Nobody planned the refill. ➡️ Asia rebuilt a little off the June–July lows. In September stocks are already down 25 million barrels — Energy Aspects’ forecast for the entire month. ➡️ “We’re not going to have a buffer.” A crude-availability problem for Asia later in the year is now her base risk, not a tail risk. THE BOTTOM LINE Sen’s map is simple and brutal: products are still the tight market, west-of-Suez margins still let crude rise, Asia is already cutting runs, and the stockpile story is a flow-rate problem being refilled at war prices. Crude is no longer the shock absorber. It is in the spiral. #Oil #Diesel #Hormuz #AmritaSen #EnergyAspects #RefiningMargins #OilInventories
- Sep 22, 20263.7x their median
https://t.co/ZFgiqTRtDE
- Sep 16, 20262.2x their median
Stunning retail sales gains in August, with gains broad based and in the core that feeds into GDP as well as vehicles. Discretionary on restaurants as well. Strengthens the demand side of the inflation equation and why debate has shifted from whether the Fed will raise rates to how far they need to raise rates to derail an inflation rooted in both demand and supply shocks.
- Sep 11, 20262.2x their median
Are they cooking the books, "you can't handle the truth?" https://t.co/QG6j4huPaM
- Sep 23, 20262.1x their median
Interest rates UP, bonds prices DOWN. Now offering equity like returns. Hard not to call today’s UST move a crash. Prices in 10s straight down and a 15bp yield move. The 5yr auction was terrible with a massive tail, latest conspiracy theory is that China unloaded supply to set the US Treasury on its back foot in front of the upcoming Summit. Utilities very weak but tech is the long duration asset.
- Sep 17, 20262.0x their median
U.S. Debt, that needs to be sold to investors over the next 12-months forward. 2026: $11T 2019: $4T 2006: $1T *US Treasury, monthly statement, Maturity distribution tables.
- Sep 11, 20262.0x their median
“We need the courage to fight our own emotions. I’ve never made a size buy at a low where I just didn’t feel terrible. The higher they go, the cheaper they look to most investors.” Stan Druckenmiller
- Sep 15, 20261.9x their median
Equities vaporized. Hubris, complacency, never EVER forget September 15, 2008. https://t.co/2RZFY3DA67
Ranked by total interactions across everything we have tracked for this account, which is a longer history than the 30-day window the rates above use. The multiple compares each post to this account's own median.
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Reading these numbers
A typical post picks up 97 interactions against 145K followers, an engagement rate of 0.067%. Measured over 27 original posts, its engagement rate beats 47% of 21,185 tracked accounts of a similar size, which puts it in the middle of its size range rather than at either end. Posts are seen about 16K times each, and 0.602% of those impressions turn into an interaction. That is about 11.1% of the follower count, which is the gap between an audience on paper and an audience in a timeline. Posting runs at about 2.3 posts a day over the last 30 days, with activity on roughly 60% of days. Most posts go out around 11:00 UTC, and Friday is the busiest day of the week. Of the 27 posts sampled, 44% carry an image or video, 19% are part of a thread and 11% link out. The account's strongest tracked post pulled 5.5K interactions, about 57x its own typical post.
- What is Lawrence McDonald's engagement rate on X?
- Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) has an engagement rate of 0.067%, based on the median interactions across 27 original posts from the last 30 days against 145,243 followers. Replies, reposts and quote-posts of other people are excluded from that sample.
- Is that a good engagement rate?
- At 0.067%, Lawrence McDonald sits above the 25th percentile of the 212,925 accounts in this comparison. Those comparison accounts are all large ones, because our scanning cadence is weighted towards big accounts, so this is a ranking among peers of similar scale rather than a ranking across X.
- Does @Convertbond have real engagement?
- Its engagement rate beats 47% of the tracked X accounts closest to it in follower count (21,185 accounts), which puts it in the middle of its size range group. Ranking inside a size band matters because engagement rate falls as accounts grow, so a raw rate would mostly re-measure the follower count. It is a starting point for a look at follower quality, not a verdict on it.
- When does @Convertbond post?
- Most posts go out around 11:00 UTC, and Friday is its busiest day, at roughly 2.27 posts per day across the measured window.