TreasuryBonds.com engagement report

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• Sep 7, 202619x their median

  U.S. bonds are now in one of their worst stretches in more than 200 years. As of July 2026, the rolling 10-year annualized return for U.S. bonds after inflation was -5.14%. That’s worse than the aftermath of the Civil War, the Great Depression and the inflationary 1970s. The only period worse since 1793 ended in September 1981, when real annualized returns fell to -6.49%. An absolutely brutal decade for bond investors.

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• Aug 30, 20267.0x their median

  This image has gone mega viral over the last few days, but investors are still COMPLETELY missing what it actually shows. Read this post in full if you want to really understand what's going on in the bond market. Let me explain: The vertical axis shows annual returns, while the horizontal axis shows volatility. From 1986 through 2020, adding bonds to a stock portfolio did exactly what investors wanted: It reduced volatility without destroying returns. A 100% stock portfolio produced roughly a 12% average annual return with 16% volatility. But a portfolio holding approximately 25% stocks and 75% bonds still returned more than 8% while reducing volatility to around 8%. That is the magic of diversification. The portfolio became less volatile than either stocks OR bonds held independently because the two assets frequently moved in opposite directions. But look at what happened from 2021 through 2025: The efficient curve largely disappeared and was replaced by an almost straight line. Every additional dollar moved from stocks into bonds reduced returns, but provided far less diversification than investors had grown accustomed to. A 100% stock portfolio returned nearly 16% annually. A 60/40 portfolio returned roughly 8.5%. And a 100% bond portfolio actually lost money. The problem wasn’t simply that bonds produced lower returns. The problem was that stocks and bonds were suddenly reacting to the same economic threat: INFLATION. When economic growth is the market’s primary concern, stocks and bonds often move in opposite directions. Weak growth hurts corporate earnings and stock prices. But it can also push inflation and interest rates lower, causing bond prices to rise. That is why Treasuries historically performed so well during many recessions and equity-market crashes. Bonds absorbed some of the damage when stocks declined. But an inflation shock works differently. Higher inflation forces interest rates upward. Higher rates reduce the value of existing bonds because their fixed coupon payments become less attractive compared with newly issued bonds. At the same time, higher rates raise the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings, compress stock valuations and potentially pressure profit margins. In other words: A growth shock can hurt stocks and help bonds. An inflation shock can hurt BOTH. That is exactly what happened in 2022. The S&P 500 returned approximately -18%. Ten-year Treasury bonds returned approximately -18%. The asset that was supposed to protect investors from the stock-market decline fell nearly as much as the stock market itself. However, there is an extremely important limitation hidden inside this image: The blue line covers 35 years. The red line covers only five. And those five years included one of the most violent interest-rate resets in modern market history. Bonds entered this period with yields near historic lows. Investors were receiving very little interest income to offset falling prices when rates rose. The Federal Reserve then increased rates at an extraordinary pace, producing enormous losses for long-duration bonds. So this chart does not prove bonds will continue producing negative returns. It shows what happens when you own long-duration, fixed-rate assets immediately before a massive inflation and interest-rate shock. In fact, bonds are in a very different position today. Starting yields are significantly higher. That additional income creates a larger cushion against future price declines. And if inflation falls, economic growth weakens or interest rates decline, high-quality bonds will regain much of their traditional hedging power. But investors should still learn an important lesson from this chart: Diversification based only on asset labels is not real diversification. Owning one stock fund and one bond fund may look diversified- But both can still be exposed to the same underlying risk. Long-duration stocks and long-duration bonds can both get crushed by rising discount rates. Corporate bonds can behave like equities during a recession because credit spreads widen. Private credit and BDCs may provide income, but they still contain significant economic and credit risk. Covered-call funds may reduce some volatility, but they still own equities underneath the options strategy. Replacing bonds with another asset that carries even more equity risk does not solve the diversification problem. Investors need to begin with the specific job they expect each asset to perform. If the goal is near-term liquidity and capital stability, short-term Treasuries or a Treasury ladder would be more appropriate than a long-duration bond fund. If the goal is protection against recession and falling interest rates, longer-duration, high-quality government bonds would play an important role. If the goal is protection against unexpected inflation, investors need exposure designed for that specific risk, such as TIPS, commodities or businesses with genuine pricing power. And if the goal is funding retirement spending, investors should think beyond short-term price movements and build a durable cash-flow plan. That can include cash reserves, bonds matched to upcoming expenses and a diversified collection of companies capable of growing their dividends and cash flows over time. Growing dividends will not prevent stock prices from declining. It would be a HUGE mistake to look at this image and assume that every investor should abandon bonds and buy 100% stocks. But you do need to understand that that the 60/40 portfolio was never a law of nature. It was a portfolio designed around the assumption that stocks and bonds would respond differently to economic shocks. The 60/40 is certainly not dead... But investors must recognize that its diversification benefits are dependent on whether markets are being driven by fears of weak growth or rising inflation.

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• Oct 1, 20266.2x their median

  🚨 A 1 percentage point decline in yields could mean a 20.3% total return for 30-year Treasuries. J.P. Morgan’s scenario analysis shows how much the starting yield and maturity matter: 📉 Yields FALL 1 percentage point: • 30-year Treasuries: +20.3% • 10-year Treasuries: +13.1% • U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: +11.3% ➡️ Yields stay UNCHANGED: • U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: +5.6% 📈 Yields RISE 1 percentage point: • U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: −0.2% • 10-year Treasuries: −2.5% • 30-year Treasuries: −9.0% Higher starting yields are now providing an income cushion that can absorb some of the price decline when rates rise.

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• Aug 27, 20265.7x their median

  A 3% REAL YIELD ON LONG-TERM U.S. TREASURIES IS A GENERATIONAL RARITY. The 30-year TIPS real yield recently hit 3.02%, a level we haven't seen in roughly 25 years. But here's what is so important: If real yields eventually fall from 3.02% back toward 1.5%, a 30-year stripped TIPS could theoretically gain ~57% due to its enormous duration. But the risk cuts both ways. If real yields rise to 4%, the same security could fall ~25%. Meanwhile, the market’s 30-year inflation breakeven is around 2.24%. That creates a pretty simple long-term bet: Inflation averages ABOVE 2.24% → TIPS should outperform comparable nominal Treasuries. Inflation averages BELOW 2.24% → nominal Treasuries should outperform. At 3% inflation, the difference compounded over 30 years becomes enormous. Long-duration Treasuries are starting to offer investors something we haven't seen in decades: Very high real yields, and massive sensitivity to where rates and inflation go next.

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• Oct 1, 20265.4x their median

  🚨 Nearly 1 in 5 shares of $TLT’s public float are sold short. Short interest in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF reached 107.78 MILLION shares. That’s 19.2% of its public float. https://t.co/bKWdX30zot

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• Oct 2, 20264.6x their median

  🚨 A 1-percentage-point drop in long-term Treasury yields could translate into an estimated 21.8% one-year total return for $TLT. With the chart assuming 5.3% income, the potential outcomes look very different from the low-yield era. Estimated one-year total returns: 📉 Yields fall 2 points: +41.5% 📉 Yields fall 1 point: +21.8% ➡️ Yields unchanged: +5.3% 📈 Yields rise 1 point: −8.1% 📈 Yields rise 2 points: −18.3% These scenarios include income and estimated price changes based on duration and convexity. The income provides a cushion, although another sharp rise in yields could still produce substantial losses. Long-duration Treasuries now offer meaningful income alongside significant upside potential if yields decline. Whether that upside materializes depends on where long-term rates go from here.

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• Oct 1, 20264.3x their median

  🚨 A 9.29% TAXABLE-EQUIVALENT YIELD ON A TOP-RATED MUNI? THE BOND SELLOFF IS PUTTING SOME STRIKING NUMBERS IN FRONT OF INCOME INVESTORS. A Virginia Housing municipal bond rated Aaa/AAA recently traded nearly 11% below its $100 par value, with a reported yield of approximately 5.50%. This is a bond carrying the highest rating from both Moody’s and S&P. Here are the details: • Issuer: Virginia Housing Development Authority • Coupon: 4.70% • Maturity: July 1, 2051 • Remarketed at $100 earlier this year • September 30 trade: $89.27 • Price decline from par: 10.73% • Reported yield: approximately 5.50% • CUSIP: 92812XVR0 At that price, $10,000 of face value would cost approximately $8,927 before accrued interest and transaction costs, while paying $470 in annual coupon income. The discount helps explain why the reported yield exceeds the 4.70% coupon. For perspective, if a 5.50% yield were fully tax-exempt, a taxable investment would need to yield: ➡️ 8.73% at a 37% applicable tax rate ➡️ 9.29% at a 40.8% applicable tax rate That illustrates how valuable municipal income can be for investors in higher tax brackets.

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• Sep 8, 20263.9x their median

  Vanguard just entered a $70+ billion corner of the bond market that most investors have never heard of: Defined-maturity bond ETFs. These funds mature like individual bonds, trade like stocks, and provide the diversification of an ETF. Here’s how they work and why it matters: 🧵

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• Sep 1, 20263.7x their median

  One of the most important divergences in global markets: The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.65%, while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen below 100. Higher yields normally attract foreign capital and strengthen the dollar. Instead, investors are demanding more compensation to hold long-term U.S. debt while the dollar weakens. Yields are rising less because of economic strength and more because of inflation, deficits, policy uncertainty, and a growing term premium. The U.S. is paying more to borrow without receiving the stronger currency that typically comes with higher rates.

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• Sep 8, 20263.4x their median

  Here's more than 500 years of interest-rate history in one chart. Despite wars, defaults, inflation, monetary experiments, and the rise and fall of empires, real interest rates have followed a remarkably persistent downward trend, declining by roughly 2 basis points per year. Capital has gradually become cheaper as financial markets have deepened, risks have become easier to distribute, and savings have grown. Today’s rates may feel historically high compared with the post-2008 era.

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Ranked by total interactions across everything we have tracked for this account, which is a longer history than the 30-day window the rates above use. The multiple compares each post to this account's own median.

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