Nasdaq|S&P500|US stock pick Trades——Ryan engagement report

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• Aug 21, 202612x their median

  🚨 NVIDIA explores deeper AI chip cooperation with South Korea’s Rebellions NVIDIA is reportedly in early discussions with Korean AI chip startup Rebellions regarding a potential: → Technical partnership → Strategic investment → Possible acquisition NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang recently met Rebellions CEO Sunghyun Park to discuss potential cooperation. Why it matters: Rebellions focuses on AI inference chips for data centers, targeting one of the fastest-growing areas of AI computing demand. Key points: → Valuation: around $2.3B → Funding raised: approximately $850M → Investors include SK hynix, Samsung Ventures and Arm → Main products: AI inference NPUs for data centers The potential cooperation highlights NVIDIA’s broader strategy: GPU → AI Infrastructure → AI Ecosystem As AI workloads expand from training into large-scale inference, specialized AI chips could become an increasingly important part of the market. However, discussions remain at an early stage. Any acquisition would likely face regulatory reviews in both the U.S. and South Korea. $NVDA #AI #Semiconductor #Korea

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• Aug 26, 20268.0x their median

  🚨 BREAKING: China Steps Up Short-Term Liquidity Support China’s central bank will conduct overnight reverse repo operations from Aug. 27 through Sept. 1, with daily operations capped at: RMB 600 billion (~$89 billion) This is another major expansion in the use of the overnight liquidity tool introduced in June. At the maximum daily size, the PBOC could conduct up to RMB 2.4 trillion of gross operations across four trading days. But the key distinction: This is short-term liquidity management, not a permanent RMB 2.4 trillion stimulus injection. Why now? → Month-end banking liquidity demand is rising → The PBOC wants to limit volatility in overnight funding rates → Government bond issuance and policy lending are increasing liquidity needs → China is making overnight repos a more regular part of its monetary-policy toolkit The signal is still important: Beijing does not want liquidity conditions to become a constraint on the financial system or economic activity. For markets, easier short-term funding conditions could be supportive for: → Chinese equities → Hong Kong stocks → Credit and property-sensitive assets But this should be viewed as a liquidity backstop, not yet as a broad new round of monetary easing. #China #PBOC #Liquidity #HongKong #Stocks #Macro

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• Aug 23, 20267.0x their median

  🚨 NVIDIA is moving beyond chips and deeper into the AI ecosystem NVIDIA is reportedly entering a $6B deal with AI startup Poolside to accelerate the development of powerful open-weight AI models. The strategic meaning: 🔹 Open-weight AI models could drive wider adoption → Lower AI costs → More customization → Greater enterprise control 🔹 More AI adoption means more demand for NVIDIA As AI models become cheaper and easier to deploy, demand could expand across: → GPUs → Networking → AI software → Data center infrastructure 🔹 NVIDIA is positioning itself across the entire AI stack The company is no longer only supplying the “picks and shovels” of the AI boom. It is becoming a participant in the AI ecosystem itself. The biggest shift: From selling AI infrastructure → Building the AI platform However, this creates a new challenge: NVIDIA is also working closely with major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. The company must balance: Partnering with AI leaders vs. Building its own AI ecosystem The AI race is no longer just about who builds the best model. It is about who controls the full stack: Chips → Infrastructure → Models → Applications $NVDA #AI #OpenAI #Semiconductor

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• Aug 21, 20267.0x their median

  📊 Aug. 21 Market Brief 🇺🇸 US / 🇰🇷 Korea / 🇭🇰 Hong Kong 🇺🇸 U.S. Market — AI stocks stabilize, rate expectations remain key After the recent semiconductor selloff, U.S. markets are entering a stabilization phase. The previous pressure came mainly from: → Rising Treasury yields → Concerns over AI investment returns → Profit-taking in semiconductor leaders → Heavy positioning in AI-related stocks Semiconductor stocks remain the market focus as investors reassess whether the AI infrastructure cycle can continue at current spending levels. The market is now watching: → Fed policy expectations → Treasury yields → NVIDIA earnings expectations → AI capital expenditure trends The key question: Is this a normal AI cycle correction, or a valuation reset? Current focus remains on whether AI leaders can stabilize after the recent pullback. $NVDA $MU $AMD $AVGO 🇰🇷 Korea Market — SK hynix buyback becomes the biggest catalyst South Korea remains the center of the global AI memory trade. After the sharp semiconductor selloff, SK hynix introduced a major shareholder-return program: → ₩40T (~$28.6B) share buyback and cancellation → Around 24 million shares to be repurchased → More than 50% of cumulative FCF (2025–2027) targeted for shareholder returns The program started on August 20 and represents one of the largest buyback cancellations in Korean market history. The market message: AI memory profits are generating real cash flow. SK hynix’s move also increases pressure on Samsung Electronics, as investors expect stronger shareholder returns from Korea’s semiconductor leaders. Key stocks to watch: → SK hynix ($SKHY) → Samsung Electronics (005930) Main signals: ✅ Foreign investors returning to semiconductor leaders ✅ Memory stocks holding after the selloff ✅ AI demand expectations remaining intact 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Market — IPO recovery and tech financing remain supportive Hong Kong continues to benefit from improving capital-market activity. HKEX reported strong first-half performance: → IPO fundraising increased significantly → Trading activity improved → Technology and AI-related listings remained active The recovery in Hong Kong’s capital markets shows investors are still willing to allocate capital toward technology growth companies despite global volatility. Market focus: → China policy support → Technology sector earnings → AI-related companies → Liquidity conditions Key names: $BABA $0700 Tencent HKEX 📌 Today’s Market View 🇺🇸 U.S. AI leaders remain under pressure from valuation concerns and yields, but fundamentals have not shown a major breakdown. Watch: Treasury yields → AI capex → NVIDIA outlook 🇰🇷 Korea The semiconductor selloff created volatility, but SK hynix’s historic buyback highlights strong cash generation from AI memory. Watch: SK hynix + Samsung + foreign flows 🇭🇰 Hong Kong IPO recovery and technology financing remain positive factors. Watch: China policy expectations + AI technology investment Overall Conclusion The current market is still trading between: Short-term valuation adjustment vs. Long-term AI infrastructure expansion The most important signal today: Can semiconductor leaders stabilize after the recent correction? If SK hynix and Samsung hold their recovery, the market may interpret the selloff as positioning adjustment rather than a change in the AI cycle. $NVDA $SKHY $005930 $MU $BABA For informational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment advice.

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• Aug 19, 20267.0x their median

  📊 Aug. 20 Market Brief — U.S. / Korea / Hong Kong 🇺🇸 U.S. — Indexes stabilize, but semiconductors remain under pressure Wall Street ended modestly higher Wednesday: Dow +0.22% S&P 500 +0.21% Nasdaq +0.16% The relief came as long-term Treasury yields pulled back after the U.S. Treasury doubled the size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated bonds. But underneath the indexes, the AI hardware trade was still weak: SOX -2.0% Technology was one of the weakest S&P sectors, showing that the semiconductor de-risking that began earlier this week has not fully ended. One major exception was $MRVL +9.9%, after Marvell announced an expanded relationship around Google’s custom AI chips. The Fed minutes also showed that several policymakers were prepared to raise rates if inflation does not move back toward 2%, so the long-rate risk for high-duration AI stocks is still very much alive. 🇰🇷 Korea — After a 5.8% crash, SK hynix becomes today’s key catalyst KOSPI suffered a brutal selloff Wednesday: KOSPI -5.8% → 6,471.17 Samsung Electronics -7.82% → ₩247,500 SK hynix -9.75% → ₩1.50M Foreign investors and institutions were both net sellers, while a sell-side sidecar was triggered shortly after the open. But today brings a major counter-catalyst. SK hynix begins its ₩40T (~$28.6B) share buyback and cancellation program today, covering up to about 24 million shares. The company is also raising shareholder returns to more than 50% of cumulative FCF for 2025–2027. That makes today’s Korean setup very interesting: Semiconductor risk-off vs. one of the largest buybacks ever seen in Korea My main focus at the open: SK hynix → Samsung Electronics → foreign flows If buyers aggressively defend the memory leaders after yesterday’s washout, that would be the first sign of stabilization. 🇭🇰 Hong Kong — Relative resilience despite the regional tech rout Hong Kong held up surprisingly well Wednesday: Hang Seng +0.09% → 25,495 even as mainland markets sold off sharply: Shanghai -2.4% Shenzhen -5.0% and Korea/Japan suffered heavy semiconductor-driven declines. One positive signal came from HKEX, which rose 2.4% after reporting record first-half profit: Net profit +24% → HK$10.57B 87 IPOs raised HK$212B Fundraising +94% YoY That suggests capital-market activity in Hong Kong remains much stronger than the headline macro picture implies. Today, another key macro catalyst is China’s LPR decision. A Reuters survey shows all 25 respondents expect rates to remain unchanged at: 1-year LPR → 3.00% 5-year LPR → 3.50% My takeaway: 🇺🇸 U.S. → Indexes stabilized, but semiconductors still haven’t fully cleared the risk-off trade 🇰🇷 Korea → Yesterday was capitulation-like; today SK hynix’s ₩40T buyback becomes the key test of whether buyers return 🇭🇰 Hong Kong → Surprisingly resilient, but China policy expectations remain the main macro constraint The signal I’m watching most closely today: Can Asian memory stocks stabilize even while U.S. semiconductors remain weak? If they can, yesterday’s Korea selloff may have been more about positioning and forced de-risking than a fundamental break in the AI memory cycle. $SKHY $005930 $MU $NVDA $MRVL $BABA For informational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment advice.

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• Aug 27, 20266.0x their median

  📊 Aug. 27 | Korea, U.S. & Hong Kong Market Focus The biggest market signal this morning is clear: NVIDIA delivered — and AI memory demand remains extremely strong. 🇰🇷 South Korea KOSPI closed +0.97% at 6,808.21 yesterday as semiconductor stocks continued to recover. → Samsung Electronics +1.75% to KRW 261,500 → SK hynix +0.60% to KRW 1,688,000 After NVIDIA’s earnings, the setup has become even more positive for Korean memory stocks. Samsung rose more than 3% and SK hynix more than 4% in premarket trading this morning. NVIDIA also highlighted persistent memory supply constraints — a strong signal for HBM and server DRAM pricing power. Today, Korea also faces another major catalyst: The Bank of Korea rate decision. 🇺🇸 U.S. Dow -0.21% S&P 500 -0.02% Nasdaq -0.08% Stocks were nearly flat during regular trading as hotter inflation kept rate concerns alive. But after the close, NVIDIA changed the tone: → Q2 revenue: $96.22B vs. $92.17B expected → Data Center revenue: $89B, +117% YoY → Q3 revenue guidance: $108B vs. $104.19B expected → FY2028 revenue growth outlook: around 70% NVIDIA jumped more than 4% after hours. The key takeaway: AI infrastructure spending is still accelerating, and memory remains one of the biggest bottlenecks. 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Hang Seng +0.56% to 25,652.97 Hang Seng Tech +0.82% to 4,626.15 Tech and semiconductor stocks recovered: → Alibaba +2.1% → Tencent +0.8% → SMIC +2.7% China’s central bank also begins overnight reverse repo operations today, with a daily cap of RMB 600B, providing additional short-term liquidity support. 📌 Today’s key watch → Can Samsung and SK hynix extend the NVIDIA-driven rally? → Does the BOK remain hawkish after July’s rate hike? → Can NVIDIA’s strong results restart the broader AI/semiconductor trade? → Can PBOC liquidity support push Hong Kong tech higher? The biggest message from NVIDIA is simple: AI demand is not slowing — and memory remains a critical bottleneck. That puts HBM, DRAM and the Korean semiconductor supply chain back at the center of today’s market. $NVDA $MU $SKHY #Samsung #HBM #KOSPI #HongKong #Semiconductors

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• Aug 22, 20266.0x their median

  📊 Weekly Market Review AI Memory is reshaping the semiconductor cycle The biggest theme of this week: AI infrastructure expansion continues, but the market is now shifting from AI expectations to AI profitability validation. Over the past week, markets experienced: → Profit-taking in AI-related stocks → Strong volatility across semiconductor names → Sharp rebound in Korean equities after the selloff → Renewed focus on the memory semiconductor cycle The market is currently balancing two forces: Short-term valuation adjustment vs. Long-term AI infrastructure growth 🇰🇷 Korea Market: AI Memory becomes the key investment theme The biggest event in Korea this week: SK hynix announces ₩40T share buyback and cancellation plan Key details: → ₩40 trillion share repurchase and cancellation → Approximately 24 million shares → More than 50% of cumulative FCF from 2025–2027 returned to shareholders The market significance: This is not just a shareholder return program. It sends a stronger message: AI Memory is generating real cash flow. For years, memory stocks were valued as highly cyclical businesses. However, AI is changing the structure: → HBM demand expansion → AI server growth → Long-term supply agreements → Stronger cash generation The market is beginning to reassess whether memory companies deserve a higher-quality valuation. Samsung Electronics also remains a key focus After SK hynix increased shareholder returns, investors are watching Samsung Electronics closely. Key factors: → HBM4 development → Advanced foundry pricing power → AI server memory demand → Future shareholder return policies Samsung and SK hynix remain the core drivers of Korea’s AI semiconductor theme. 🇺🇸 U.S. Market: AI enters the validation stage The biggest change in U.S. markets: AI stocks are no longer trading only on future expectations. The market is now asking: Can AI investment generate sustainable returns? Investors are watching: → AI capital expenditure trends → Data center investment returns → NVIDIA earnings outlook Recent semiconductor weakness was mainly driven by: → Higher Treasury yields → Crowded AI positioning → Profit-taking before major earnings events The next major catalyst: NVIDIA earnings Key areas: → Data center revenue → Blackwell shipments → AI infrastructure demand → Gross margin trends NVIDIA: AI ecosystem continues expanding Despite short-term volatility, AI infrastructure investment remains strong. The AI value chain is expanding from: GPU ↓ into: Memory Data Center Networking Power Software The market is increasingly focused on one question: Is AI just another semiconductor cycle, or a long-term infrastructure transformation? 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Market: Technology capital recovery continues Hong Kong markets continue to focus on: → Technology sector recovery → AI-related financing activity → Policy support expectations The key drivers remain: → Liquidity → Policy direction → Technology earnings recovery 📌 Three biggest changes this week 1️⃣ AI Memory thesis strengthened Previously: Memory = cyclical industry Now: AI is supporting: → HBM → DRAM → Enterprise SSD The demand structure is changing. 2️⃣ Cash flow matters more than growth stories SK hynix’s ₩40T buyback highlights: Leading AI supply-chain companies are beginning to generate significant shareholder returns. 3️⃣ AI investment is entering the second phase Phase 1: The market focused on: “Who has the most GPUs?” Phase 2: The market is focusing on: “Who owns the complete AI infrastructure?” Including: → GPU → Memory → Data Center → Energy → Networking 🔍 Key things to watch next week 🇺🇸 NVIDIA earnings: → Data center revenue → Blackwell shipment progress → AI capex outlook → Margin trends 🇰🇷 Korean semiconductor: → SK hynix buyback impact → Samsung Electronics performance → Foreign investor flows 🌎 AI supply chain: → HBM supply → DRAM pricing → Data center expansion Conclusion The biggest change this week: AI is not losing momentum. The market is simply moving from: “AI expectation phase” to: “AI earnings validation phase.” Short-term volatility may continue due to rates and positioning. However, the long-term AI infrastructure expansion remains intact. The biggest winners may not only be GPU companies, but the entire AI ecosystem. The AI competition is moving from chip competition to infrastructure competition. $NVDA $SKHY $005930 $MU #AI #Semiconductor #HBM #DataCenter

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• Aug 17, 20266.0x their median

  📈 AI servers may be creating the next supply-chain squeeze: MLCCs. This is starting to look very similar to what happened in memory. When Samsung, SK hynix and $MU shifted limited capacity toward higher-margin AI memory, the impact eventually spilled over into legacy DRAM, tightening supply and improving pricing. I think MLCCs may be entering the same phase. July 6: TrendForce said the crowding-out effect from AI-oriented high-end MLCC production had already begun spreading into automotive and consumer markets. July 28: AI demand pushed major Japanese and Korean MLCC suppliers to record monthly shipments, while consumer-grade orders continued to spill over. Aug. 12: TrendForce again highlighted MLCC capacity shifting from consumer products toward AI-oriented applications. At the same time, China channel checks reportedly showed commonly used 22µF and 47µF MLCCs running out of stock, with some manufacturers even suspending new orders. That is where this gets interesting. The obvious direct beneficiaries of AI-server MLCC demand are: Samsung Electro-Mechanics Murata But the second-order effect may become even more important. If premium MLCC capacity keeps getting pulled into AI servers, supply for consumer and general-purpose MLCCs could tighten into late H2 2026 and early 2027. That could benefit broader MLCC suppliers such as: Taiyo Yuden (6976) My thesis is simple: AI doesn’t only create shortages in what it directly consumes. It also creates shortages in the capacity that gets displaced. We already saw this with legacy DRAM. MLCCs may be next. #MLCC #AI #DataCenter #Semiconductors For informational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment advice.

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• Aug 16, 20266.0x their median

  📈 $CRWV may be changing how we think about the useful life of a GPU. CoreWeave just disclosed something I think is much more important than it looks: It recently signed an A100 contract extending into 2029 at an attractive price. The A100 launched in 2020. That means a GPU architecture could still be generating meaningful revenue nearly nine years after introduction. The key here is not simply chip performance. It is the scarcity of energized, production-ready compute. Older data centers already have power, cooling, networking and racks in place. Many of those facilities cannot simply swap into the latest ultra-dense, liquid-cooled systems without major infrastructure upgrades. So if an existing A100 cluster can still handle the right workloads economically, keeping it productive may make far more sense than rebuilding the entire facility. This also creates a natural hierarchy inside AI compute: Blackwell / Rubin → frontier training and high-performance inference Hopper → scaled inference and fine-tuning Ampere → general inference, batch workloads and cost-sensitive compute In my view, that does not cannibalize $NVDA’s newest GPUs. Frontier workloads keep moving toward the newest architecture, while older GPUs move down the stack and remain utilized. For $CRWV, the economics are especially interesting. Management says its initial contracts are underwritten to repay asset-level financing and generate attractive returns. Any later renewal or resale of that already-installed infrastructure becomes additional upside. But there are still risks. One A100 contract does not prove every old GPU will retain premium pricing. Renewal rates, utilization, electricity costs and CoreWeave’s heavy debt and interest burden still matter. My takeaway: GPUs may be less like rapidly depreciating consumables and more like infrastructure assets that can be redeployed across generations and monetized for much longer than expected. That could matter for both $CRWV’s asset economics and $NVDA’s ecosystem durability. $CRWV $NVDA For informational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment advice.

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• Aug 29, 20265.0x their median

  📊 $AFRM | Affirm Is Becoming More Than a BNPL Company Affirm delivered another strong quarter: → Revenue: $1.17B, +33% YoY → GMV: $14.1B, +36% YoY → Revenue less transaction costs: +39% → Adjusted operating margin: 30% This was Affirm’s 11th consecutive quarter of 30%+ GMV growth. And the next growth engine is becoming clearer: Shopify. Affirm and Shopify have launched Shop Pay Installments in Australia, extending a partnership already active across the U.S., Canada and the U.K. For FY2027, Affirm expects: GMV > $64B with an adjusted operating margin above 30.5%. 📌 Why this matters Affirm is evolving from a standalone BNPL product into an embedded payments network: Shopify checkout → more merchants → more consumers → more transactions → stronger network effects Our institutional view: The key story is no longer just rapid GMV growth. It is whether Affirm can combine: 30%+ growth + international expansion + improving profitability + disciplined credit without sacrificing underwriting quality. Credit remains the main risk to watch. 30+ day delinquencies were 2.5%, up modestly YoY but improving sequentially. If that balance holds, Affirm could increasingly be valued not simply as a BNPL lender — but as a global embedded-payments infrastructure platform. $AFRM $SHOP #Affirm #BNPL #Fintech #Payments

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